August registered 123 sales. There were 144 sales in July 2009. Of course, it's expected that August sales drop relative to July sales. In 2004-2007, August sales fell by 8% relative to July. However, this year August fell by a much larger 14% relative to July.
The triangle MLS reports that cumulative sales are down 25% compared to last year. From the numbers that Kral and I have collected, 2008 sales were down from 2004-2007 sales by 30%. If the Triangle MLS says we're down 25% from 2008, then we're down 47% from 2004 to 2008.
Indeed, my cumulative total for January to August Chapel Hill sales in 2004, '05, '06 and '07 was 1225, 1347, 1178, and 1158. Let's just call that 1200 sales on average. The data we retrieved from the Orange County website says there were 837 Chapel Hill sales between Jan and August '08. TMLS says there were 1017 in all of Orange County. My data suggests there 384 sales between Jan and Jun '09; adding in the TMLS numbers of 144 for July and 123 for August (assuming, wrongly, that all Orange County sales were in Chapel Hill), that gives 651 total sales. Using that optimistic assumption, volume for 2009 is off by a 45% from 2004-2007.
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