Wednesday, September 30, 2009

900% Return on Investment



XXX Brookgreen Drive $199/sqft. Asking $513,000

Invest $25K in a 10% downpayment on a $250K house. Wait 10 years. Sell that house for $500K. You make $225K off $25K

But before you say "that sounds too good to be true," just wait until I tell you that you don't even have to sell the house to start seeing a return on your investment!

Here's the timeline for todays home-debtors:

01/29/1999 Purchased for $251K, $225K mortgage. $26K down. Spruillco Ltd and Norwest Mortgage made that happen.

10/16/2000 Took out a stand alone 2nd mortgage of $25K from Bank of America.

01/05/2004 Refinanced their 1st mortgage with a $218 Mortgage from Wells Fargo.

03/10/2006 Refinanced both mortgages together into a single $356K mortgage with the Carolina Home Mortgage Company.

Today's home-debtors stand to make a handsome profit if they're able to get their asking price. Hell, they've already spent an extra $106K from their original $26K investment. They've already made a handsome profit. Too bad for today's debtors their next buyers will have to put twice down what they had to. Instead of $25K, the next sucker in this ponzi scheme will have to put down $100K.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Pipeline

The foreclosure process is going to help purge our system of excess debt. It will be very expensive for banks, and traumatic for home-debtors. But it will return housing costs to those which can be sustained.

Home buyers between 2001 and 2007 started extending themselves more and more so that they could purchase a home. Real estate appreciates endlessly, of course, and so you make money by owning real estate. The more expensive a house you buy, the more money you make. Over extending yourself to afford a home is in fact a sound financial decision. The more people that over extend themselves, the more housing prices increase, the more attractive over-extension becomes. It was a positive feedback cycle: all that needed to happen was for lenders to keep pumping debt into the system. Thus the exotic loans: 10% down, 0% down, subprime, liar loans, interest-only loans, negatively-amortizing loans.

Unfortunately for the people that bought between 2001 and 2007, housing couldn't appreciate forever. Now the buyers that could barely afford a house in 2007 cannot sell their house in 2009 because they owe more than the house is worth. They are trapped. It sucks.

Chapel Hill saw a lot of 10% down mortgages. I haven't found any 0% down. I have seen a lot of ARM mortgages, but not any interest-only or negatively-amortizing loans. Most people took out conventional mortgages. Lots of them took out 80/10/10 mortgages (80% first mortgage, 10% second mortgage, 10% down). Chapel Hill won't be seeing tons of foreclosures due to the grossly exotic loans. What about foreclosures from conventional mortgages where the buyer simply overextended themself?

So far, foreclosures have been very light in Chapel Hill. I keep looking at the Google foreclosure map, and there are ever only about 17 properties in the foreclosure process (delinquent, foreclosed, reo) -- some foreclosures come and go, but several have been showing up consistently for a very long time. The one on North Hill Road, for instance, was foreclosed upon back in August 2008.

So are we ever going to see a foreclosure wave hit Chapel Hill? If we don't, prices will deflate more slowly.

CalculatedRisk has a post showing a graph with the "seriously delinquent" rate for all conventional mortgages it backs. It's a hockey stick graph: flat until mid 2007 when it shoots straight up. It's still going up.

Foreclosures are coming.

Saturday, September 26, 2009

Harrington Bank

Calculated risk just posted a link to a website that has calculated the troubled-asset ratio for all banks in the US.

I've seen a couple familiar banks show up again and again in the HELOC records for Chapel Hill properties. Harrington Bank, which is headquartered in Chapel Hill, is one of those banks.

What's Harrington Bank's troubled-asset ratio? 24. That means the value of its assets tied up in non-performing assets (foreclosures) and 90-day delinquencies are 24% of its capital + reserves.

That's well above the national median of 13. It's also way up from this time last year when its troubled-asset ratio was 1.3.

To avoid blowing this out of proportion, I should point out that when the FDIC closed the Georgian Bank in Atlanta on Friday, the bank had a troubled asset ratio of 198.

A couple other ratios for banks based in North Carolina:
New Dominion 56.
RBC Bank 38
Mechanics and Farmers Bank 35
Wachovia 34 (I thought they were gone?)
Bank of America32

Dark days for bankers ahead. They have a lot of writing down to do.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

August home sales from TMLS

From the Triangle MLS website:



August registered 123 sales. There were 144 sales in July 2009. Of course, it's expected that August sales drop relative to July sales. In 2004-2007, August sales fell by 8% relative to July. However, this year August fell by a much larger 14% relative to July.

The triangle MLS reports that cumulative sales are down 25% compared to last year. From the numbers that Kral and I have collected, 2008 sales were down from 2004-2007 sales by 30%. If the Triangle MLS says we're down 25% from 2008, then we're down 47% from 2004 to 2008.

Indeed, my cumulative total for January to August Chapel Hill sales in 2004, '05, '06 and '07 was 1225, 1347, 1178, and 1158. Let's just call that 1200 sales on average. The data we retrieved from the Orange County website says there were 837 Chapel Hill sales between Jan and August '08. TMLS says there were 1017 in all of Orange County. My data suggests there 384 sales between Jan and Jun '09; adding in the TMLS numbers of 144 for July and 123 for August (assuming, wrongly, that all Orange County sales were in Chapel Hill), that gives 651 total sales. Using that optimistic assumption, volume for 2009 is off by a 45% from 2004-2007.

Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Condos

June 2007 "The Downtown Economic Development Initiative, a collaboration between the town and Ram Development Co., will bring about 140 condos to downtown. For about $7.25 million, plus the value of the 2-acre site that now houses a municipal parking lot, the town will receive about 160 underground parking spaces to rent to the public."

June 2008 "'Developers are very optimistic risk takers,' said Bernard Helm, president of the Rocky Mount company, which tracks North Carolina housing trends. 'They have to be. While I think there is room for condominium development in exclusive neighborhoods in Chapel Hill, it's going to require some patience on the part of the developers,' Helm said.

"Developers say the town's arduous, often contentious, planning-approval process limits risk.

"'When you build something in Chapel Hill, the market risk is pretty much mitigated, because there's never enough supply,' [East 54's construction company's president] Perry said."

July 2008 "Outside a former Franklin Street gas station, hundreds of developers, dignitaries and potential condo buyers gathered under a big tent last month. After the visitors nibbled smoked salmon crepes, sipped adult beverages and listened to a disc jockey spin adult contemporary music, organizers hoped they would mosey down to a sales center where Ram Realty Services was introducing its 140-unit condominium project, 140 West Franklin.

"The scene sounds so 2005.

"Back then, when easy lending was fueling the housing boom, lavish parties introducing condominium projects cluttered the calendars of developers and potential buyers across the country. Now, amid one of the biggest housing slumps in national history, it may seem difficult to take a pre-sales campaign seriously.

"But Ram and two chief competitors -- East West Partners and Greenbridge Developments -- are betting that Chapel Hill is an oasis of pent-up demand.

"Construction began last year on East 54, off N.C. 54. The project will include 175 condos. Perry expects to sell out by early 2009.

"Ram is so comfortable building in Chapel Hill that it is looking past 140 West Franklin to 345 additional condominiums and townhouses it wants to build. Construction of Ram's Grove Park wouldn't start until at least mid-2009."

November 2008 "Ram Development Co. could break ground on the 140 West condominium project at Parking Lot No. 5 in January. That will erase about 170 parking spaces, including 103 hourly spots convenient to both ends of Franklin Street."

May 2009 "Two years ago, Ram Development Co. was making plans all over town. Now it's unclear whether any of them will pan out as planned.

"As the real estate bubble was peaking, Ram made a deal with the town to invest about $12.5 million of its own money and borrow more than $60 million more to build about 140 condos, ground-floor shops and a public plaza on a Franklin Street parking lot.

"n March, Ram's contract was terminated with J. Randolph Segar to buy the 12.5-acre Town House Apartments site off Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard.

"Two years ago, Ram proposed another project -- 48 condos, two banks and a 22,000-square-foot office and retail building on Martin Luther King Jr. Boulevard near Interstate 40. Ram had purchased the 13-acre Altemueller tract for $1.8million in April 2006 but sold it last August for $3 million.

"Ram has spent the past year trying to get enough pre-sales to get 140 West Franklin off the ground. This month, the company cut prices on some units by about 10 percent, hoping to entice several dozen buyers before it breaks ground.

"Indeed, two years ago, developers could easily borrow three-quarters of a project's cost -- often while offering little guarantee that their projects would be filled. Today, lenders are willing to offer loans only to those projects where much of the space is pre-sold or pre-leased. Developers who can get commitments from buyers or tenants are often only able to borrow about 60 percent the cost of a project, which would mean Ram might have to double its cash investment.

"There were 19 condominiums sold in all of Orange County in the first four months of the year, according to the Triangle Multiple Listing Services. That's down 70 percent from the same period last year.

"Town Council member Bill Strom, who helped to negotiate the contract allowing Ram to build the mixed-use complex, hopes the company will proceed. 'I can't speculate on what their business model and plan is,' Strom said. 'But I can't imagine that this is a great time in the real estate development industry,' he added.

September 2009 "First impressions are lasting ones, as the saying goes. But in the case of Bill Strom, the last impression may be the one by which he is remembered.

"Mr. Strom recently submitted his resignation from the Chapel Hill Town Council. He is leaving here for somewhere. These things happen. People move on and sever ties and obligations. Usually, they share their goodbyes and collect thanks. Then, life goes on without them.

"But Mr. Strom didn't make a clean break. Although he sold and moved out of his home a couple months ago, he didn't get around to resigning until August 1. If he had quit just two weeks earlier, Chapel Hill voters would have been able to elect someone to his seat this fall. Strom's timing handed that right to his fellow Town Council colleagues. They, not the voters, will choose the person to fill his remaining term.

"Bill Strom's last official act was to disenfranchise his constituents. Since he hasn't commented, we may never discover his intentions for doing so. But the hue and cry he provoked does reveal expectations Chapel Hill has for its elected officials."

...

*Today's post is an homage to the Housing Bubble Blog

Sunday, September 06, 2009

Not yet Case Schiller

From the sales price data I've extracted so far, here's the median appreciation you would have gotten from your house if you bought in various years and sold in 2007.

1992 -- 2.344
1993 -- 2.069
1994 -- 1.977
1995 -- 1.774
1996 -- 1.731
1997 -- 1.673
1998 -- 1.612
1999 -- 1.537
2000 -- 1.550
2001 -- 1.411
2002 -- 1.423
2003 -- 1.278
2004 -- 1.246
2005 -- 1.154
2006 -- 1.079
2007 -- 1.000

I'm looking at house re-sales. The difference in price between two transactions of the same house. Two sales define a "Price Pair". Price pair analysis avoids a lot of annoying variables, like the size or quality of the house, the size of the lot, etc. Price-pairs are what Case-Schiller use. I'm trying to compute a Case-Schiller index for Chapel Hill.

Saturday, September 05, 2009

Anemic Sales



Sales volume is way down.

June sales in 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 were more than twice what they are were this past June. 2008 was a weak year. 2009 is dramatically weaker than 2008.

Volume will not return until prices drop.

...

About the data:

A good friend and regular commentator in the CHBB forums, Kral, spent an evening with me and created a fantastic set of python scripts to crawl the Orange County land records web server. We now have all 110K transactions for Chapel Hill properties that are digitized on their server. Some records date back to 1952, but I'm skeptical that the county has digitized every transaction since then.

The records seem complete from 1990 on.

I have filtered this data to exclude transactions where:

1) the last name of the seller and buyer are the same
2) the number of logged tax stamps is 0 (the property changes hands without any money changing hands)
3) the buyer is an "llc" or an "inc" or a "realty" or an "etal"

I then look for months with huge outliers in the number of sales. I've added extra filters for "82 magnolia chape"l, which bought 245 units back in June of 2007, one for "brookstone drive" which bought 226 units in an apartment complex on Homestead Rd back in June of 2005, one for "g&i vi ramsgate lp" which bought 189 units on 54 back in March 2008, and one for "mustard seed chambers" which bought 102 units on Westbrook drive in September of 2006.

I don't put much faith in the July 2009 transaction count, since I believe there to be substantial lag between the time a sale closes and when it registers in the Orange County website. Kral and I will run the crawler again next month and see if anything changes for either June or July 2009 sales.

Isn't it refreshing to see these plots? Don't you hate the way the NAR (the National Association of Realtors) keeps all their data to themselves?

The claim "Real-Estate was hot in June" can be "true" in that there were more transactions in June 2009 than there were May 2009. But you can see from this histogram that sales in June are always greater than those in May. And you can also see that sales in June are off 50% from their bubble-year highs.

The NAR is all about misleading buyers into believing that now is the time to buy. A broken clock is right twice a day.