Valley Park Condos

XXX Valley Park Drive. $284/sqft. Asking $185,000.

I spent a summer living in the Valley Park Apartments years ago. I shared that tiny two bedroom apartment with a friend of mine. It was cramped, the kitchen was tiny. My friend had TiVo, which made up for a lot. That, and my portion of the rent was only $300/month.

Recently, the apartments were converted into condos. The kitchens were remodeled. They now have the tiniest work surface I've ever seen in a kitchen. BUT that tiny strip of counter top is custom granite. Ooooo. Granite.

When I was surfing Realtor.com this spring, I saw them go up for sale and thought, "who would ever pay for that shithole?" Well, the original offerings disappeared from Realtor.com shortly after they went up. I drove by this evening, and sure enough, there are people living there.

Except, Orange County does not have any record of these condos having been actually sold. Only today's property is listed. The other condos, when they were listed in December '08 originally listed for $195K. If they really did sell for $195K in May (when they disappeared from Realtor.com), then why is this one being listed for 10K less?

I have a feeling this apartment-to-condo conversion is now in its second phase: condo back into apartment.

*Correction*
Two of the nine do have recorded transactions on the Orange County public records website. One of the two deeds-of-trust lists 4 people on the loan (all with the same last name) and makes reference to "rent" several times. I have a feeling these four people bought this property as an investment and are renting it out. The place rented for $600 / month when I lived there; I would hope they can get a lot more so that they can cover the expense of the mortgage.

Foreclosures on google maps

CalculatedRisk pointed out that google maps nowdisplays foreclosure data. The data that google is displaying comes from various points in the foreclosure process. NODs, NTSs, & REOs all show up on this map. So I had to take a look: what's in the pipeline for Chapel Hill?

Here is a map for the 27514 zipcode.



There are hardly any on the map. I'm surprised.

Compare that with 10 miles away in Durham



How can one interpret this?

a) Chapel Hill will be immune to the housing bust because the schools make it special.

b) Because foreclosures won't deflate the bubble, Chapel Hill's deflation will take a long time. But with Durham properties just up the road foreclosing, their prices will deflate. There will be a sharp price gradient between Durham and Chapel Hill, one that cannot be explained by Chapel Hill's schools (since that difference is already priced into the market). This price gradient will slowly erode Chapel Hill's prices.

What do I mean?

Let's say the school system allows Chapel Hill to command a 20% premium over Durham; a 100K house in Durham would cost 120K in Chapel Hill. This price difference existed before the bubble began. Both Durham and Chapel Hill see 75% appreciation during the bubble; the Durham house rises to 175K and the Chapel Hill house rises to 210K.

Now, due to foreclosure pressure, the Durham house returns to it's pre-bubble price of 100K, but the Chapel Hill property remains at 210K. Can Chapel Hill pretend that it should now command a 110% price premium over Durham?

So, I look at these two maps and I see depreciation in the future for both Durham and Chapel Hill; but Chapel Hill's depreciation will be slower. Terrific. We'll drag out the negative consequences of this stupid bubble for even longer.

I'm going to post more news links

I'm going to try and increase the links-to-news content, which means, I'm not always going to post when I have a house that I want to point out.

Sometimes, it'll just be a link to an article.

Like this one:

"The vacancy rate in the Triangle’s apartment market hit a five-year high of 10.4 percent in July, according to a report released Thursday by Real Data Apartment Market Research.

That’s up from 9.2 percent a year ago, according to the report, which comes out twice a year.

...

It’s also lowered rental rates, which have fallen by almost 10 percent in the past 12 months – to an average of $760 per month from an average of $787 per month."

Priced to comps

XXX Pebble Springs Road, $155 /sqft, Asking $399,900

Todays property costs 50% more than it did ten years ago. In fact, it did all of its appreciation between 1999 and 2005 when its current owners bought the place. If it sells for its asking price of $399, then since 2005 when it was purchased for $362, this house has merely been keeping up with a 2% inflation. Today's asking price is reflecting a "return" to 2005 pricing. However, I think the bubble will deflate to '99 pricing or somewhere thereabouts, before toxic exotic financing took over. If I'm expecting a return to 1999 pricing, then the house should cost $318K in 2009 dollars (20% higher than its $265 selling price).

But alas, housing prices are sticky. Its owners owe $330K, so they're in no hurry to set a $318 price tag. Furthermore their neighbors have had success moving their properties at the similar $/sqft.

Recent closed sales in Springcrest:
7/7/09 -- 410K for 2549 sqft = $161 / sqft
7/2/09 -- 397K for 2500 sqft = $158 / sqft
6/15/09 -- 480K for 3477 sqft = $138 / sqft
6/2/09 -- 390K for 2400 sqft = $162 / sqft

This property will have no trouble appraising at $155/sqft; someone with a good credit history and a $80K down payment would have no trouble closing on this house.

CalculatedRisk has been waffling recently on how much housing prices have left to drop before the bubble has run its course. The summer selling season has seen a seasonally-expected uptick in volume, which is at least better than continued volume drops against seasonal expectations. However, this slight increase does not mean that bubble-era "normalcy" has returned. The papers are trumpeting this increase loudly, and it may produce an unfounded sense of optimism.

Chapel Hill is only seeing a return to 2005 pricing. We have a long way to go.

Rental Parity II

XXX Presque Isle Lane $153/sqft. Asking $250,000

Yesterday I promised to show an example of rental parity that's already arrived in Chapel Hill. According to IriveRenters criteria, someone looking to either rent or buy this house should buy it. It's a little cheaper to buy than to rent. If it is cheaper to buy than to rent, then rational market participants should snatch up this property. There should be a price floor at rental parity.

So are we at a price bottom? I don't think so.

Today's property may be rented for $1500/month or mortgaged for $1656/month*. Another house a few doors up may be rented for $1600/month so I would guess that the $1500/month rental rate is pretty accurate.

*Assuming a 5.5% 30-year fixed rate mortgage. Accounting for the tax breaks, the total cost of ownership is $1364/month.

The problem is that today's owners couldn't afford the house at that price. They took out a first mortgage with Central Carolina Bank for 80% of the 265K purchase price in 2004. The took out an immediate HELOC to cover another 10% of the purchase price. They put only 10% down but today's buyer will have to put 20% down. In 2008, the owners refinanced their HELOC with Bank of America to $38K. Assuming they fully tapped their HELOC, they owe $249,950, explaining the $250K price tag. Todays sellers can't negotiate lower.

But bad financing aside, why don't I think today's price for this house is the bottom? Because the monthly cost of ownership hinges on a 5.5% interest rate. When interest rates go up, then buyers for this house would have to pay more per month. If you assume that the buyers today and the buyers tomorrow are the same people making the same ammount, then they can't afford a higher payment. Therefore the demand for the house at todays price point lessens. To match the demand for this house, the price must drop.

If you're buying today at a 5.5% interest rate, then 5 years from now when you want to sell to someone who gets an 8.0% interest rate, then the principal has to drop 17%. (Plug 100K as the price for a house with a 5.5% interest rate into the IHB Calculator, the monthly payment is $662. Plug in 83K as the price for a house with a 8.0% interest rate and the monthly payment is $660). Congratulations, you lost 85% of your down payment.

Rule of thumb: You want to buy when mortgage rates are high. You want to refinance when mortgage rates are low.

Remember, you can refinance your interest rate, you can't refinance your principal.

Rental Parity

XXX Worth $175/sqft. Asking $978,000.

IrvineRenter was one of the first people to publicly announce in 2007 that the housing market was in a bubble. That's when he started his blog, at least. His basis for this conclusion was that it was cheaper to rent than to own. Properties in Irvine had inflated to a point that the monthly mortgage payments were more than the properties could fetch as rentals. Home owners (home debtors) were the ones throwing their money away.

The price point at which IrvineRenter stated he would enter the market was rental parity. Rental parity denotes the price at which it is equivalent to rent or own the property; a break-even point. If you're thinking in terms of "monthly payment" where you factor in the tax incentives and the upkeep costs into the mortgage payments and the home owners insurance payments, then that monthly cash outlay would be equal to the monthly rent someone would be willing to pay.

Since figuring out what the monthly payment is on a house is complicated, IrvineRenter has created a calculator to crunch the numbers for you.

Today's property is both for sale and for rent.

It's really a beautiful property, though, I don't know what a million dollar house should look like.

You could either rent at $3,800/month or buy for $5,438/month*. Plug in the numbers into the calculator. It's cheaper to rent this property than to buy. If you buy this home at this price, you're throwing away your money.

*Assuming a 5.5 30-year fixed rate mortgage.

This house is in Chatham county, so I don't have access to the property records. At least, I haven't started trying to figure out the Chatham county records yet.

...

We're at an interesting point in the deflation of this housing bubble. Some properties I've looked at have deflated to rental parity. The reason seems to be that interest rates are at historic lows. In my next post, I'll run the numbers on a house that's currently at rental parity with a 5.5% mortgage, but that would not be at rental parity at a higher mortgage rate.

Foreclosure in the works

XXX Tinkerbell Road $151/sqft. $389,000.

I'm going to predict that today's property will end up in foreclosure. The "owners" owe $368,037 on this property which they purchased a year and a half ago for $296,500. To avoid a shortsale/foreclosure situation, the owners have to get at least $143/sqft.

In their neighborhood, two houses just sold:

6/30/2009 -- 421 Tinkerbell Road. $119/sqft. $222,350 for 1862 sqft.
6/26/2009 -- 508 Colony Woods Drive. $100/sqft. $233,000 for 2367 sqft.

The next most recent sale in this neighborhood was back in May.

A third house is currently listed for $100/sqft. It's larger than today's property. It's also a few years younger (1968 vs 1962). This third house is priced to sell, and it will. Its owner even stands to make a profit.

When this third house sells, there will be three perfect comps -- comparison sales -- for today's property which an appraiser will use to measure the value of today's property. If the appraisal comes in at $119/sqft (generous), then the bank will only loan $243K. The buyer would have to put up a $143K down payment. If the appraisal comes in at $100/sqft (likely), then the bank would only loan $204K and the buyer would have to put up a $183K down payment. I don't think there are buyers with that much money saved who will consider this property.

The owners of today's property purchased the house in January of 2008. They payed the previous owner $296,500 in February 2008, but took out a 332K loan with BB&T. I don't understand why the bank wanted to loan 112% of the property value. Apparently, First Medallion Bank didn't think this was unreasonable and so they allowed the owners to refinance in December 2008, into a $346,800 loan. Then in January 2009, they took out a second mortgage from Kingsford Home Improvements for $21,237. Ahh. Serial refinancing. Did all that extra cash go to good use?

From the picture of the kitchen, it looks like they put in a granite counter top. The cabinets look new, but are ugly. I'm guessing the flat top range was installed as well. I personally dislike the idea of flat-topped ranges. They certainly didn't make the kitchen larger, it looks tiny. Maybe there are other improvements they made to the rest of the house, but then, why aren't they showing them in the pictures (there are only four), or at the very least, including a description of them? Geez, any description at all would be nice.

These owners intended to flip the house. Instead, they're going to get burned.

As good as sold

XXX Canterbury Lane $296/sqft. Asking $999,000.

Todays owners have been in their house since 1991.

In 1991, they bought the house. The county's stamp-tax records are incomplete. They took out a $55K 15-year mortgage with Wachovia

In January 1999, they refinanced with the State Employees Credit Union (SECU) for $75K.

By December 1999, they were ready for a little more of that delicious MEW, so they opened a HELOC with SECU for $100K.

It looks like they tapped $75K of that $100K HELOC since in November 2007, they refinanced with SECU into a $150K mortgage.

So far, they are $150K in the hole for a 3300 sqft house. That's less than $50/sqft + whatever down payment I don't have record of. These owners are expanding their debt through the bubble years, but still not going crazy, at least by Irvine CA standards.

They put their house on the market in March of this year, 118 days ago.

And now, the WFT portion of our story:

In May, they opened a $530K HELOC from Harrington Bank. WTF? The house is already on the market, can't you just wait until it sells to spend that equity? If they tapped that HELOC, then they're $680K in the hole.

I just can't figure out why someone would do that. $530K is not a small amount of money. $530K is the price of another house. Did our current owners pay cash for another house with debt from this house? (Is that really paying cash?). Is it really wise to spend the profits of a home sale before the sale completes?

If they sell at their asking price, they stand to make a fortune. They would get $220K in addition to whatever portion of the $530K HELOC they haven't already spent. But who is going to pay $300/sqft for this house?

Tally: 1 for 5

I've now looked at the debt history for 5 houses, and it's only been the first one that I looked at that showed evidence of mortgage abuse.

XXX Westbury Drive $119/sqft. Asking $400,000

Today's property was purchased in 1992 by its current owners for $235K. At the time it was $70/sqft. It looks like they put 65K down and had a mortgage of ~$175. In 1999, they refinanced to a ~$185K. In 2004, they refinanced again to ~$213K -- and it appears to have been into a fixed-rate mortgage at that! This refinancing does not qualify as serial or abuse.

If these owners have to drop their price by $50K, then they still walk away with an additional $122K in profit (well, $98 after the realtors take their 6% cut) -- that's beyond the $38K they already extracted from their two refinancings. What's funny is that, in spite of having so much of an equity cushion, these owners have not dropped their price to move the house (I don't know how many times they dropped the price, they likely have, all I'm claiming is that they haven't dropped it sufficiently to move it); the house has been on the market for 233 days. Besides that previous bit of snark, all I can say about these owners is that I wish I were in their situation.

...

One thing that's confused the hell out of me as I've been looking at properties around Chapel Hill: there's no clear price per square foot that sellers list for, and there's no clear price per square foot that buyers are willing to pay. Sometimes, it seems like $160/sqft is the average, but then you have places like Sothern Village and Meadomont that are nowhere near the same price. It vaguely looks like many sales are occurring at the $140/sqft range. Today's property is cheaper than that, though. Why hasn't it moved? Certainly it is a big house and I hear it's now in vogue to buy a smaller house, but at it's current price, it's a much better deal than a lot of other properties I've seen on the market. I can't figure out why it would have remained unsold for so long.


Mortgage abuse tally: 1 for 5. 20%.

Instructions for Finding House Debt History

Say I'm interested in looking at the debt history for 123 Hoosuredaddie St in Chapel Hill. Maybe I'm interested in purchasing this house and want to learn what it sold for recently, or maybe I'm curious if it's owners were serial refinancers.

I have to go to two websites:

1) I go to the Address Inquiry page on the Orange County property records website.. There I search for "Hoosuredaddie St" in the street name drop-down menu, and click on the "Display addresses for street" button.

This takes me to a page that lists all the houses on Hoosuredaddie Street; I click on the "PIN" link for 123 Hoosuredadie Street. This takes me to an intermediate page that lists the current owner. On this page is a link for a "Property Summary Page".

I follow this link to an "Orange County Land Records Data" page. At the top of this page there is a row of orange rectangles.

The "Prior owners" link inside the right-most orange rectangle will list the number of tax stamps paid to the county for each transaction. From the tax-stamp count, you can figure out the selling price for the house. This page also has the date of the sale and the name of the owner prior to the sale.

The "Documents" link inside the third-from-the-right-most orange rectangle lists all of the documents relating to this property including all the liens on the property. This list is almost completely useless since all you have is the title of the form; there are no links on this page to the documents themselves. THIS PAGE IS REALLY IMPORTANT. Each document is identified by two numbers: the "book" and the "page". The first column contains this information with a "/"... e.g. "4309/527"

2) If you have the "book" and the "page" numbers, you can then go to the AiLIS Public Inquiry page. On this page click on the "Book & Page" tab. This brings you to a form where you can enter in the book and page for a particular document. This then brings you to a page listing all of the signatories to the document -- each one has a link to the document as a PDF. This is where the gold is.

For example, if you go to book 4309 and page 527 you will see the record of an Orange County resident who, in 2007, paid off his mortgage, 3 years after taking it out. Good for him.

Count your chickens

XXX Perry Creek Drive $142/sqft. Asking $460,000

(This property is not listed for sale on realtor.com. One source tells me it's for sale, but another says it's no longer on the market.)

5/28/2002 -- Bought for $350,000 -- $280,000 ARM Mortgage and a $70,000 downpayment.
9/26/2003 -- Refinanced for $289,000
1/6/2004 -- Took out a second mortgage for $26,600
2/2/2007 -- Opened a HELOC for $99,400
5/17/2007 -- Extended the HELOC to $129,600

Total property debt: $445,200 if you assume they fully tapped their HELOC.

The owners have already spent the money that they will make on the sale of this property. They've counted their chickens before they hatched.

...

I've finally figured out how to look at the debt record for a property. This is the first property I looked at, and it shows the same pattern of mortgage abuse seen and documented in Irvine, California.

I intend to keep a tally that I will update on this blog: the percentage of houses for sale that I investigate which show signs of HELOC abuse. The tally so far is 1 of 1, or 100% of all homes I've looked at.

Ghost Town

113 Atterbury Street $237 / sqft. $799,900


Orange County records show that every single house on this street is owned by an investor or the builder. The other houses aren't listed for sale, however.

For some reason, I can't find this address on any map. Buyers aren't biting; 309 days on the market. Maybe they can't find it either.

What a view

For $273/sqft, this house offers you the opportunity to bathe in front of your neighbors

Stress

When the bubble burst in San Diego, the city that first saw the end of the bubble, it was greatly effected by foreclosures at the bottom end of the market; the subprime implosion. As subprime mortgages were pulled from the offerings, volume disappeared. Prices had risen to a point that, without subprime mortgages, there were no buyers. So prices had to drop to return to a point where the population could afford houses. The irony is that the subprime mortgages was touted as an "affordability product" that allowed more people to enjoy home ownership. Instead, subprime mortgages made housing unaffordable.

I don't get the sense Chapel Hill saw much of the subprime fallout; I do think that we'll see more of a problem when the Negative ARM loans recast (scheduled to begin this fall) and we will probably see problems with regular-old ARM mortgages now that interest rates are starting to creep up. There will be more stress in the Chapel Hill market in the near future.

5526 Spring House Lane. $154/sqft. $649,000.

Here's an Orange County property that's currently on the market as an REO -- it's a foreclosure -- it's not in the Chapel Hill school district.

It was originally purchased in 2005 for $870K ($206/sqft) and was bought back by the bank (US Bank National Association acting as a trustee for Credit Suisse) for $739K in March of 2008 ($175/sqft).

The reason foreclosures often go for much less than the market price is that banks have rules about keeping non-performing assets on their books. They are in a hurry to get rid of real estate. For some reason, US Bank National Association was not, and is not currently:

Orange County property records show this foreclosure occurred on March 19th 2008. The property did not get listed until March 7th 2009. This property sat unoccupied for a full year before making it to market? It could have been listed once, de-listed, and then re-listed to give it a fresher look. Regardless, the property is on the market for 25% off it's 2005 purchase price and it's still been on the market for 52 days. An obvious question is: if the market won't snatch up a property when it's owners are aiming to price it below market value, then haven't the owners over-estimated the market value?

How it will burst

130 F-9 Estes Drive

I don't have enough data to definitively prove that the appreciation seen in Chapel Hill during the bubble years was driven by the exotic loans and the subsequent self-reinforcing euphoria over home ownership (and in particular, mortgage equity withdrawl -- MEW). What I have is this: a simple argument that appreciation is due to changes in the desirability of an area (and not simply its desirability), and a pretty short list of things that have changed about Chapel Hill in the last 10 years.

I also have evidence of a significant real estate bubble that happened during the same period and its subsequent burst in many metropolitan areas. I have two dots that are not very far apart and I see how one could draw the line. We have rampant appreciation in Chapel Hill occurring at the same time as rampant appreciation took place in the rest of the country. The bubble burst elsewhere, it's going to burst in Chapel Hill.

How will it happen?

Sales volume will dry up across the board. Foreclosures will represent a majority those sales that do take place. Volume at the bottom of the market will return, but the mid- and high-end properties will languish. These sales will be to new home buyers and investors, but the move-up buyer (the buyer that in normal times makes up 80% of the market) will be stuck in the homes due to depreciation. Eventually, the debt-riddled mid- to high-end properties will succumb to foreclosure. Once a neighborhood has been overtaken by 3 or 4 foreclosure sales -- or even sales reflecting mild depreciation, they define the selling price for the neighborhood; no sales are possible at the previous "value."

This last point is subtle but important. A bank will only loan 80% of the appraised value of a house. If a buyer wants a loan on a house that's asking $300K and has $60K ready for a down payment, then if the bank appraises the house at $250K, they will only loan $200K. The buyer has to come up with the remaining $40K for a total downpayment of $100K, or the sale falls through. (Incidentally, the National Association of Realtors has been complaining loudly about appraisals not coming in high enough.)

I exaggerate when I say no sales are possible at the previous value; they are, but they require buyers with enormous down payments. The number of such buyers are few, and, given that they're frugal enough to have saved up in a time when everyone else was digging their debt hole deeper and deeper*, they're probably smart enough to know that time is on their side.

(*some such buyers merely cashed out on the bubble and may not be the clever buyer I'm envisioning)

What have we seen in Chapel Hill so far?

Volume is down: first quarter closings dropped 42% relative to first quarter 2008. Volume in 2008, mind you, was down 29% from 2007.

Meanwhile, the average price is up 11% from last year. WTF?

So far, it doesn't seem like many foreclosures have come through Chapel Hill. That's the next step.

Today's property:

130 F-9 Estes Drive, $71/sqft, $49,900.

I believe this property is a foreclosure as it matches the free data I found here and the complete lack of effort by the realtor in the listing supports my belief. (I'm not ready to pay $40/month for the foreclosure.com subscription service.)

This property sold for $58.5K in 2008 after being sold at $65.5 in 2007. That's 23% off 2007 pricing.

This looks like price weakening at the bottom of the market...

Was Chapel Hill's appreciation justified?

106 Baskerville Circle in Durham County

Acknowledging that housing prices have increased over the last ten years, I have to counter the second of the two arguments home owners like to use to justify current prices:

Our area is better, so the appreciation is justified.

I have a funny story.

So, when I first started thinking about the housing bubble and how it related to Chapel Hill, I ran a quick google search and found this exchange on an internet forum. That's basically all google turned up besides the new Bubble Tea place on Franklin.

In that forum, about half way down the page, "Omamia" says she'd rather rent for a year and watch how the housing bubble plays out -- she's worried there would be a 20 or 30% decline in prices. "MrsSteel" respectfully disagrees. She responds that the reason that Chapel Hill is not experiencing a bubble is because of the *schools* -- "the very best in the area -- possibly in the entire state." According to MrsSteel, 20% declines will not happen.

What struck me as being so funny about that response was that a few days before I found this thread, I had been on the phone with my grandmother, who lives in Wilmington, Delaware. Her neighborhood also saw significant appreciation in the past ten years, and when I expressed concern for her over possible depreciation, she said that she wasn't worried about it. Why? The schools.

"The schools will save us" is a thought that comforts many people.

The problem with that logic is the same problem one might have with buying stock in Dell. Sure, Dell sells a lot of computers, but are they ever going to sell more computes than they are already? Is there reason to believe Dell's current sales expectations are not already built into the stock? Chapel Hill's schools might be better than Chatam county schools, so you would expect to pay a premium on a Chapel Hill house, but that premium was already built into the price of the Chapel Hill home before the housing bubble began. Appreciation during the bubble was not due to any feature of the area before the bubble began.

Fundamentally, appreciation is due to a *change* in the desirability of an area, not simply its desirability. In order to justify appreciation, one has to point at what has changed to make an area more desirable. Did incomes increase, did employment increase?

I will start looking for that data. I don't have the impression that incomes increased during the bubble years. The University is the largest employer in Chapel Hill proper, and I don't have the impression that they started paying higher salaries, or that they increased employment.

Maybe the triangle as a whole? RTP has been expanding, right? Maybe RTPs expansion has something to do with Chapel Hill's appreciation?

I don't believe this is the case and here's my flimsy data to back it up: Durham properties did not show the same appreciation Chapel Hill properties did. I would expect that RTP would have had a similar effect on Durham properties as they would on Chapel Hill properties; RTP is in Durham.



The Durham median-price line is the orange one that's pretty much flat (143K in 2005, 160K in 2008). I need to look harder to find a 10-year plot for Durham.

There are many Durham properties that are listing in the $130/sqft range -- I happen to have found this one because it turns up when you search for Chapel Hill on Realtor.com. How much of a premium should a Chapel Hill property command over a Durham property?

106 Baskerville Circle $131/sqft. Asking $369,000

*Update*

I'll weaken my own argument here: Durham county housing did appreciate during the bubbble; it looks like it saw a 50% appreciation in the last ten years. This is less than the appreciation Chapel Hill housing saw.

Prices rose

102 Windhover Place.

There are two common defensive tactics that current home owners will take when trying to defend the idea that current housing prices are here to stay.

1) Our area didn't see appreciation the way other areas did (e.g. California).
and
2) Our area is better than other areas, so any appreciation made sense.

In this post, I'll address tactic #1.

Did prices rise in Chapel Hill? Yes.

This tiny graph from Zillow shows the median home price in Chapel Hill over the past ten years.



Ten years ago, the median home sold at $178K, Back in March, the median sales price was $356K. Prices doubled. I don't think these figures are inflation adjusted; however, inflation has been in the 2% range during this time. 1.02^10 = 1.20, meaning that if property values merely kept up with inflation without any of that evil appreciation like they had in California, then they should be selling for 20% more than what they were 10 years ago. In this time, housing prices appreciated at roughly 7% a year (1.07^10 = 2).

Put another way, houses currently are 40% more expensive than they should be.

Today's property:

102 Windhover Place $148/sqft. $359,500

This is home is a little bit better than the median in Chapel Hill. Back in April, its owners were asking $379,500 -- a bit above the median selling point in March. In 1998, it sold for $230,000 -- a bit above the median selling point in 1998. The current owners stand to make $120K for having lived in a house for 10 years. Good job guys. Way to house live.

Of course, they only make this money once they have found someone who wants to assume an extra $120K worth of debt. The house has been on the market now for 74 days.

Meadowmont, 18 months of supply

207 Oval Park Place

The rule of thumb, according to the Seatltle Bubble Blog, is that 6 months of supply is a balanced market. Fewer than 6 months of supply is a sellers market, more than 6 months of supply is a buyers market.

Meadowmont has seen 2 properties close in the last 31 days. There are 36 active listings. There are 2 continent listings, and 5 pendings. Discounting the contingent and pending listings, Meadowmont is looking at 18 months of supply.

So, should we count the pending sales? How likely are they to go through? Given the rapid rise in the interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, (roughly 20% increase as interest rates went from 4.5% to 5.5%), many pending sales are falling through at the last minute; if a buyer got a quote but didn't "lock in" the rate, then when they go to close, they'll find out they're no longer eligable, the sale falls through, the home ends up back on the market.

Generally, people are no longer looking at ARM mortgages. If you can only afford the monthly payment when the government is artificially holding interest rates at historical lows, then you'd be in trouble the moment they let go; maybe the government won't let go? Well, looks like last month, their grip wasn't strong enough.

Pending sales in Meadowmont:
331 W Barbee Chapel Road, $593/sqft, Asking 1,550,000
341 W Barbee Chapel Road, $551/sqft. Asking 1,400,000
343 W Barbee Chapel Road, $530/sqft. Asking 1,100,000
339 W Barbee Chapel Road, $517/sqft. Asking 1,100,000
709 Spring Street, $142/sqft. Asking $174,900

I'll keep you posted when and if these homes close or if they end up back on the market. That first home had been looking for a buyer for 593 days before it found one. Let's say all of these homes close in the next week; then Meadowmont would be showing 7 sales and 36 listings; less than 6 months of supply. A seller's market? I remain skeptical.

That last listing is on the other side of 15-501. Seems much more reasonable.

Today's property:

207 Oval Park Place. $308/sqft. Asking $1,395,000.

This house has been on the market since March 17th, 2007. It's been 830 days.

It was purchased in 2001 for 1,089,500. Apparently, the next generation needs to pony up another quarter million to keep the Ponzi scheme going.

Southern Village: 170% appreciation.

203 Edgewater Circle. Asking: $206 / sqft. Price: $634,900.

I'm starting a new theme to my sporadic posts on this blog.

I have been in awe of the incredible reporting on the housing bubble in Irvine California from the Irvine Housing Blog as well as from the Seattle Bubble Blog, the Real C'Ville Blog and the Housing Bubble Blog. The new theme will describe properties in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, which I believe are over-valued. I am looking to eventually buy a house in Chapel Hill, but I don't want, having saved up money for several years, to put a down payment on a house and then watch that down payment evaporate as the house depreciates. The purpose of this blog is mostly to remind myself* of two things:

1) In the past 12 years or so, the selling price of homes in Chapel Hill has grown beyond historical standards.
and
2) The selling prices of houses in Chapel Hill have not yet deflated significantly the way they have in California, Nevada, Florida, DC, and other parts of the country. I think they should and that they will.

(*I don't believe anyone reads this blog besides a handful of close friends. I've always kept this blog for me more than for my readers. That will likely continue.)

There are bears out in the world, and in the past few years, their voices have had more sway. Their basic premise is this: "exotic" financing changed the supply/demand characteristics in the housing market, causing an increase in prices. Exotic financing is now gone, therefore, the supply/demand characteristics in the housing market should cause a return to affordability in the housing market.

Coincidentally, "exotic" it an anagram for "toxic". Well, it's almost an anagram. Maybe you've heard of toxic assets and the ruin that they have brought upon Wall Street? Those toxic assets are these exotic loans. They're being flushed out of the system at considerable expense to the tax payer. New mortgages are no longer exotic, but older toxic mortgages are still out there and will be bleeding the housing market for the next few years or so... we'll have to wait and see.

What I love about the Irvine Housing Blog is IrvineRenter's ability to look into the financing history for properties. He's watched California residents go deeper and deeper into debt to afford their extravagant lifestyles. I would love to be able to look into the financing details of home owners (often called home debtors or fauxowners -- come on, being $500K in the hole doesn't make you an owner, it makes you a debtor) in Chapel Hill. I don't have access to the same data that IrvineRenter has; I'm not in the real estate business, so I don't have access to the same database.

But I do have access to public records online through the Orange County website. I admire IrvineRenter's insistence on home-owner anonymity. While I intend to talk about specific properties, I have no intention of talking about names of actual owners. Like IrvineRenter, I will monitor the "comments" section of this blog and delete posts that mention the home-owner's name.

So that brings me to today's post:
203 Edgewater Circle in Southern Village.

Currently, it looks like sales in Southern Village are happening at the $205 /sqft range -- except, there aren't many of these sales, and there are a lot of houses for sale. This house is not overpriced when it comes to comparable recent sales, but it is way more expensive today than it was in 1998 when this house was built.

In 1998, public records for this property show a sale at $235K, or $76/sqft. In 2002, this house sold for $360K, or $117/sqft. In 2007, at the height of the bubble in every other city in North America, this house sold for $598K, or $194/sqft.

Now, two years later, the owner is seeking a futher appreciation of $12/sqft. If the current owner gets their asking price, then in the 12 years since its construction this house will be sold for 270% of it's original price.

See, now, here's my problem. This is a Ponzi scheme. Future residents purchase the debt burden of previous residents and then kick in extra money for the time and effort of having lived in a house.

What? You make money by living in a house? Sign me up!

The thing about house-living is that it's not hard. Anyone can do it. You can do nothing with your life, contribute nothing to humanity or society, and yet be rewarded by having resided in a house. House-living is the occupation of the future. Right?

I think Southern Village will bottom out in the neighborhood of $117/sqft when this bubble finally deflates.

Recast

The foreclosure crisis is not nearly done. It's just beginning. The key is that "exotic financing" will lead to monthly-payment increases for homeowners EVEN IF interest rates remain at these historically low levels. These exotic loans "recast" to regular old amortizing loans ~3 or 5 years after the original loan date. We will see record default levels this fall.

Don't trust me, trust IrvineRenter of the Irvine Housing Blog.

From Today's IHB:



There are three types of ARMs: (1) amortizing, (2) interest-only, and (3) negatively amortizing. When prices reached the practical limit of fixed-rate mortgages, many people turned to adjustable rate mortgages to increase affordability because they have lower interest rates. At first people turned to amortizing ARMs, but that soon gave way to interest-only ARMs and finally to negatively amortizing ARMs.

When the FED aggressively moved to lower interest rates, many cheered that the ARM crisis was averted; at best it was delayed. The assumption most people made is that all the ARMs written are amortizing ARMs. There is no payment shock with an amortizing ARM unless interest rates rise; unfortunately, reality is that very few of the ARMs still utilized by borrowers are amortizing ARMs.

The first wave of the foreclosure crisis was subprime. That wave has crested, and its devastation is nearly done.

The second wave that is building now is caused by the deteriorating economy and ARM mortgage recasts (Calculated Risk has a good post on this). As I wrote in The ARM Problem, it is not the reset of interest rates that is the problem, it is the recasting to a significantly higher payment caused when the mortgage goes from interest-only to fully-amortized. The negatively amortizing ARM, also known as an Option ARM is shown in yellow on the chart above. It is the most toxic loan product ever conceived. The Option ARM and the interest-only ARM—and their associated recasts to amortizing loans—are the two loans responsible for the second wave of the foreclosure crisis.

Repeat after me: Saudi Arabia is moderate

Just keep saying it and it will be true.

Ignore anything that suggests otherwise.

Shaky Grounds

From an editorial by Frank Rich in the Times

Five years after the Abu Ghraib revelations, we must acknowledge that our government methodically authorized torture and lied about it. But we also must contemplate the possibility that it did so not just out of a sincere, if criminally misguided, desire to “protect” us but also to promote an unnecessary and catastrophic war.

...

That sums up the editorial, but the very bland summation, if it is correct, should have America outraged.

Torture confessions are highly unreliable because the tortured person confabulates to end the pain. They are the weakest form of testimony one could imagine. For very obvious reasons, torture confessions cannot be used in a court of law.

So why would the evidence one wished to build a case for WAR from require a lesser standard than what could be used in a court of law? It's WAR. Maybe just maybe the pro-torture lobby can construct a hypothetical (e.g. Jack Bauer interrogating bin Laden) that might induce the otherwise rational public to break their resolve on an issue as fundamental as a torture free America so that a handful of marines could swoop down on a terrorist cell. (I'm not conceeding that this scenario should break the rational public; I'm just entertaining a hypothetical.) But when the country is being asked to commit blood and treasure to go to WAR, to put 200K boots on the ground in another country, then the evidence ought to be beyond reproach.

Shame on Bush. Shame on Cheney.

Bailout

This morning, I went to my sock drawer to find out that I was completely out of socks. The drawer was empty, much to my surprise, since over the past three weeks it has averaged half full. No one could have seen this coming.

The problem seems to be that all of my current sock assets are tied up in the dirty laundry pile. It's strange to be in this situation where I have plenty of socks, but I'm simply unable to pay out more socks at the moment because the socks I have are not liquid.

My problem is liquidity, not solvency!

That's why I'm asking the federal government for $130 Billion to purchase new socks and hopefully take some of my illiquid socks off the books (the floor).

It's a miracle!

Pastor deflects a gunshot with a bible. Nothing short of a miracle. Fucking atheists need more proof in God than that?

Oh. That's not fair, right? "The man died, have some respect."

So what would the headline have been if the shooter's gun had jammed after the first shot instead of after the fourth? When a plane crashes and the carefully trained flight attendants get everyone out without injury: a miracle. When god fails to deliver a miracle for a man of the cloth on his holy day?

You're right. I forgot. I should only ever talk about good things that happen in this world.

D'oh

Southpaw!?

Open Hostility II

The Onion continues

Spider Eggs Hatch In Bush's Brain

Open Hostility

The Onion has continued in its post-election cathartic Bush suffering articles yesterday with this gem:

"Single-engine Cessna crashes into Bush

CAMP DAVID, MD—The Federal Aviation Administration said engine failure was to blame for a pilot losing control of a four-seater Cessna aircraft that crashed head-on into President Bush Thursday. According to the FAA report, the nose of the Cessna 350 impacted with the president's face at 110 mph, instantly killing pilot James Morris, 45. Bush reportedly suffered third-degree burns on 95 percent of his body, a broken spine, 20 shattered ribs, one collapsed lung, a basilar skull fracture, and minor leakage of cerebrospinal fluid. Bush, who had been hiking alone in an isolated region of the 125-acre presidential retreat before the accident, was trapped under the burning engine block for 45 minutes before rescue crews reached the crash site. While doctors said they worked swiftly to remove the smoldering wreckage from the president's body, much of the plane's burning debris had already fused to his skeleton before he could be airlifted from the scene. Bush is resting comfortably at Bethesda Naval Hospital."

Since the election, The Onion has been writing journalistic, matter-of-fact articles about a limp, incompetent, lame-duck president to whom terrible terrible things have been happening: Bush: 'Can I Stop Being President Now?'. Bush Frustrated By Mother's Constant Questioning Of His Plans Post-White House. Bush Dragged Behind Presidential Motorcade For 26 Blocks. Bush's Eyelid Accidentally Nailed To Wall. And now Single-engine Cessna crashes into Bush. I can't tell whether its commentary on how impotent Bush has become that terrible things must happen to him in order to merit two inches below the fold, whether its trying to invoke a cathartic response from Americans who really wish Bush would drop dead, or whether its the Onion staff themselves empowered by the light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel of Bush's presidency; it was after all over 4 years ago when they wrote this gem: Nation’s Liberals Suffering From Outrage Fatigue

WaMu got it right

“We hope to do to this industry what Wal-Mart did to theirs, Starbucks did to theirs, Costco did to theirs and Lowe’s-Home Depot did to their industry. And I think if we’ve done our job, five years from now you’re not going to call us a bank.”

— Kerry K. Killinger, chief executive of Washington Mutual, 2003

From today's Times

Kennedy sent us to the moon.

Where does Bush send us?

short and sweet

"I don't particularly want to see my tax dollars going to bail out the fools who overpaid for houses while simultaneously crowding me out of the market."

-- Irvine Renter on McCain's new "lets buy up bad mortgages" plan

Bailout Cost?

Paulson went around to the weekend morning talk shows in Washington.

When asked about the expense of buying bad mortgages from the reckless lenders, Paulson cautioned that the $1 Trillion expense that the treasury is putting up won't necessarily loose all that money. What they will get with that money are "illiquid assets" that will eentually be liquified.

Oh. So how much will the these mortgages eventually sell for -- how much is the american tax payer going to loose on these mortgages?

"The price you will get for those assets will be based upon how the economy does, the pace at which the housing markets recover," he said.

OK.

So the bubble drove prices above affordability. Prices are starting to drop, but are still well above affordability (thus the defaults and foreclosures!) and Paulson wants the US tax payer to buy up all of these mortgages and then hold their breath until housing costs return to their peak values?

How is this good?

Let's say family X makes $200K/year and they bought a $1.5M house with an option ARM two years ago with some obscenely low teaser interest rate (2.5%?). The option resets, the interest rate goes up to 10% and now the $12K/month mortgage is too expensive. Family X will default on their loan and "the bank" will have to foreclose. Nevermind that $1.5M is more than family X can afford -- their foreclosure will put a house on the market that "the bank" needs to sell in order to recover some of its losses.

"The bank" is either some stoopid wall street broker, or wamu, or wachovia. Or "the bank" is the US Treasury.

If it's the US Treasury, then there are a few scenarios that could play out. 1) Maybe they decide to let family X keep their house but pay a lessened interest rate. 2) They foreclose. 3) They let family X keep their house for a little while, paying less interest, and then foreclose a year or two down the road.

All three options represent money taken from my pocket.

Option 1). The treasury borrows money to buy family X's mortgage and has to pay interest on this debt. Family X isn't paying the full load of the interest. The difference they're paying is coming out of my pocket in current and future taxes.

Option 2) The treasury buys the mortgage at $1.5M and sells the house at $1M. Half a million of taxpayer money disappears, to be made up for by higher taxes now and in the future.

Option 3) The treasury borrows money to buy family X's mortgage, and pays the difference in their interest rate on this borrowing and the interest that family X pays. This difference is footed by me. Then the treasury forecloses. Since the treasury delayed selling in a falling market, the house is now worth $750K. $750K of taxpayer money has evaporated.

Shouldn't taxpayers also have the right to extract revenge on the rich bankers that will walk away from this bubble with fat pockets? The salaries they earned in the years leading up to the bubbles' burst left them with a sweet pot to ride out the impending depression. Can't we take that money from them? Shouldn't there be class action lawsuits against the firms that caused this disaster?

Let the games begin

I'm moderately miffed that in the wake of a speculative bubble in housing prices, one which I avoided taking part in by selling a house (before a move) and then renting in my new city, that the government has stepped in to bolster Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with my (taxpayer) money. What kind of punishment is it to the people who were smart enough to avoid a bubble that they should pay higher taxes so the schmucks that bought at the height of the bubble can keep the houses they can't afford?

That's at least my simple-minded analysis.

Apparently Japan witnessed a similar run-up in real-estate in the '80s, that left the country in a decade-long recession though the 90's that they're still not quite out of. The Post has an article about it and how the lessons of Japan's mistakes are being well heeded by US regulators. Bernake was apparently one of the ardent critics of the Japanese government's response to the bubble's burst, and he seems to be true to his word in taking swift response to the crisis we're in.

Chilling quote:

"I don't think the Americans quite realize yet that behind this hill lies the Himalayas," said Takashi Watanabe, a top official at the Bank of Japan in the 1990s and now a professor at Tokyo's Bunkyo University. "The U.S. is going to go through a lot more before this is over."

Testing RSS

I'm years behind the times. Stromk just showed me how to use RSS and now I have to test it.

Gonzales: I forgot how to tie my shoes

When Gonzales testified before Congress a year ago concerning the firing of 8 prosecutors, he avoided all of their questions with Ronald Reagan like dodges: "I don't recall." Instead of owning up to the decisions he made, he refused to acknowledge that he'd made them... or at least, that's what continued acts of forgetfulness look like to me.

But there was always the possibility that Gonzales was so forgetful that he didn't remember any of the things he had done as Attorney General.

Today, the Post has a story on Gonzales' mishandling of classified information. In the article, it says that the reason Gonzales did not lock up the classified documents in his safe at night was because he

"could not remember the combination,"

That settles it. Gonzales is not an insubordinate hack who refuses congresses constitutionally mandated power of oversight. No. He's just an idiot.

Russia: the most fucked up country in the world

I can't imagine anything like this ever happening in the United States.

From the post:

"A leading opposition figure in Russia's volatile Ingushetia province was shot and killed Sunday after being detained by police... Magomed Yevloyev, a businessman and the owner of a Web site that angered Kremlin-backed local leaders with its coverage of official corruption and police abuse, suffered a gunshot wound to his head while in a police car taking him to a station for interrogation... The local government issued a statement saying that Yevloyev was shot after trying to seize a weapon from one of the police officers holding him. But a lawyer for Yevloyev ridiculed the explanation and said police dumped Yevloyev on a road after shooting him.... Yevloyev had just returned to Ingushetia after an absence of several months. He was seized by a large group of police officers after disembarking from a plane arriving from Moscow... the regional president, Murat Zyazikov, happened to be on the same flight and called police to the airport after recognizing Yevloyev in the business-class cabin... In a posting on his Web site last year [Yevloyev] claimed that Zyazikov had put a $50,000 bounty on his head."

Gold Stars

I have been playing a lot of Rock Band with Pants lately. Well, for the past 6 months. 10 months. Something like that.

We'd stopped playing for a few months and then picked it back up again recently when our downstairs barkeep had Guitar Hero running in the bar, and then later that week, invited us over to his place where a bunch of people got together to play Rock Band. I'd lost a fair amount of skill, so playing in front of people was a little embarrassing (though not nearly as embarrassing as singing was).

Well, after a steady month of practice, I had recovered to my former skills and at this point, I've actually gotten good.

Tonight, I was playing Bass on "Hysteria" by Muse (downloadable) on expert and I got through the whole song. 3 stars. 86%. Something I'll write home about.

Then later, I was playing Guitar on "Gimme Shelter" by the Stones, and the craziest thing happened: at the very end of the song, right around 166K points, my 5 star rating went to 5 gold stars.

I didn't even know there were gold stars. It certainly wasn't because I'd played flawlessly (there are bonuses in Guitar Hero for flawless performances, but not in Rock Band); I finished with only 98% accuracy.

This is a whole new challenge that's opened up for me in this game.

Another great Hitchens article

On Slate

new stamp

Virtual destructor

My fan base quickly pointed out that in the example code I sent through valgrind the other day, that class Derived didn't allocate any dynamic memory, and that not calling its destructor would not have been expected to leak memory. All of the comments I got suggested that if I had allocated some block of dynamic memory, either with a stl vector or a raw C-style array inside the constructor, and destroyed it in the destructor, the memory would be leaked in a call to the (non-polymorphic) base class dstor.

I went ahead and coded up the suggestion and found, yes, valgrind detects the leaked memory.

This makes me wonder, though: how the hell does delete know how large the thing is that its deleting?

I wish I could quit you

I got stuck in emacs while using cygwin. C-x C-c did nothing. So I tried M-x to type out a bunch of possible "exit" commands.

I tried:

quit
exit
leave

These are not meaningful ways to end emacs.

How do you quit?

M-x save-buffers-kill-emacs

Thank you google. If not for you, I might still be trapped in emacs hell.

valgrind non-virtual dstor leak bug

I ran valgrind on the following code which, you'll see, leaks the data stored in the derived class.

Valgrind does not seem to notice the leak. I'm not so happy about that.

/// test.cc
#include

class Base {
public:
virtual void blah() = 0;
~Base() { std::cout << "Base dstor" << std::endl; }
private:
int data_;
};

class Derived : public Base
{
public:
virtual void blah() {}
~Derived() { std::cout << "Derived dstor" << std::endl;}
private:
int data2_;
int data3_;
};


int main()
{
Base * bptr = new Derived;
delete bptr;
return 0;
}

..........
From the command line.

>g++ test.cc -o test.out
>valgrind --tool=memcheck test.out
==31535== Memcheck, a memory error detector.
==31535== Copyright (C) 2002-2005, and GNU GPL'd, by Julian Seward et al.
==31535== Using LibVEX rev 1575, a library for dynamic binary translation.
==31535== Copyright (C) 2004-2005, and GNU GPL'd, by OpenWorks LLP.
==31535== Using valgrind-3.1.1, a dynamic binary instrumentation framework.
==31535== Copyright (C) 2000-2005, and GNU GPL'd, by Julian Seward et al.
==31535== For more details, rerun with: -v
==31535==
Base dstor
==31535==
==31535== ERROR SUMMARY: 0 errors from 0 contexts (suppressed: 5 from 1)
==31535== malloc/free: in use at exit: 0 bytes in 0 blocks.
==31535== malloc/free: 1 allocs, 1 frees, 24 bytes allocated.
==31535== For counts of detected errors, rerun with: -v
==31535== All heap blocks were freed -- no leaks are possible.

Swedish Meatballs

"The steer grazes on grass during the day and enjoys the occasional swede as a treat."

Infant waterboarding

To ghastly to believe.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2008/04/18/ng.polygamy.crime.cnn

snowboarding

Pants and I finished our third day of snowboarding at this resort an hour outside of the city. They had this deal for newbs: $100, 3 lift tickets, 3 rentals, 3 lessons. I had a blast, and so did Pants, who before our first day had never been skiing, snowboarding or even sledding. It was her first time on a snowy hill. She liked it so much, we're talking about getting a season ticket next year -- $300 for the "limited" season pass (which means, on weekends, it's not good at the sister-resort up the street -- you can still go to the sister resort on weekdays, though) or $360 for the "unlimited" (good at the sister resort at all times). Pays for itself after 6 trips since usually lift tickets are $48. I'm totally psyched.

Welfare Dad

You know this guy is just going to go out and make the same mistakes the next time 'round. Those suckling at Uncle Sam's teat tend to think they never have to assume responsibility for their mistakes.

Bush: "I broke the law, I dare you to impeach me"

"Let me make it very clear and to state so officially in front of this committee that waterboarding has been used on only three detainees. It was used on Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. It was used on Abu Zubaydah. And it was used on [Abd al-Rahim al-]Nashiri."

-- CIA director Michael Hayden, yesterday.

Waterboarding is torture. Torture is banned under international treaty. Bush violated international treaty. He broke the law. He should be removed from office.

Twelve McCain Supporters

In all of West Virginia, only twelve people voted for John McCain. Twelve. I bet they know each other.

Of course, that's still 1% of the West Virginia vote, because only a little more than a thousand people in west virginia voted. The rest must think they live in Russia where there's no such thing as democracy.

Awesome

Hologram

Racist

"You don't like people from outside the state coming in and telling you what to do with your flag. In fact, if somebody came to Arkansas and told us what to do with our flag, we'd tell 'em what to do with the pole; that's what we'd do."

-- Mike Huckabee, while in South Carolina.

Unamerican

"I have opponents in this race who do not want to change the Constitution. But I believe it’s a lot easier to change the Constitution than it would be to change the word of the living God. And that’s what we need to do — is to amend the Constitution so it’s in God’s standards rather than try to change God’s standards so it lines up with some contemporary view of how we treat each other and how we treat the family."

-- Mike Huckabee

Flu

I've come down with a nasty case of the flu which has incapacitated me since Monday night. I've been staying home mostly so I don't infect everyone else in the lab -- but if I went in to lab, I'd get nothing done there either.

The most-likely suspect for having infected me is, of course, Pants. She came home with something from work, and ended up staying home one day. She was slightly feverish, she tells me, but mostly, it seemed like a cold. When I finally contracted it, I skipped the cold symptoms and went straight for the chills. Fevers, sweats, malaise. It always happens that if she and I catch the same thing, it knocks me out 200% worse than it does her. Most of the time, I catch something and she never catches it from me.

The worst part about being home sick is that I feel totally unproductive. I wake up at night from work dreams and can't fall back asleep.

Hardware watchpoint in GDB

For some reason, the synatax for setting a hardware watchpoint in GDB is impossible to find in google. Or rather, there are misleading instructions on how to set the watchpoint. The instructions you'll find say "watch for when variable x gets changed by writing 'watch x'". But this never solves a memory corruption bug. At least for me.

This post is for my own purposes. I never want to waste 10 minutes searching for the proper syntax again.

Let's say I know that location 0xABCD1234 is getting corrupted.

Then the gdb command is:

> watch *((int*) 0xABCD1234)

Mukasey

The president of the Uninted States continues to violate the constitution he swore to uphold in torturing prisoners. He has asked congress to replace his former torture-enabler, the embattled Gonzales, with a new puppet, Robert Mukasey. When Mukasey went before the Senate, he would not say that waterboarding is torture. Waterboarding is torture. Mukasey has publicly expressed his willingness to allow Bush to continue torturing, to continue breaking international treatries in violation of the constitution.

Charles Schumer, a senior democrat, is now supporting Mukasey's confirmation based on a private conversation he had with Mukasey. What's his rationale? He says that Mukasey agreed with a hypothetical: if Congress were to pass legistation saying that waterboarding is torture, then it would not be out-of-line with its constitutionally granted powers and the President wouldn't have any recourse (except of course, to veto the bill).

The logic here is tortured. Schumer seems to think this consession is a hat-tip to the separation-of-powers provisions of the constitution. When did the constitution need consessions made to it?

Moreover, its a circuitous consession. It makes congress do much more work than it needs to! Congress does not need to say that waterboarding is torture. Legal precident and human decency defines it as torture. Worst of all, if congress were to legistlate that waterboarding is torture, then it effectively grants immunity to water-boarders up until this point: "Oh, I just water boarded that guy because it wasn't illegal at the time."

Schumer is doing a grave disservice to the anit-torture camp. Why is toture so hard to stand against?

Religion is evil

A catholic bishop makes up a story about how condoms give you AIDS. Does he have any proof for his claim? No. Of course not. But that's the thing. Religious authority has never been constrainted by the burden of proof, so people are used to just listening to whatever lunatic ideas they have.

This bishop has blood on his hands.

not surprised

The Post declares Putin's move a surprise. I disagree. He's always behaved like a dictator. Now he's just assuming the mantle.

Dead air

As we drove from North Dakota into Montana on Wednesday evening, the sun was setting and I was getting tired. We'd been driving since 9 that morning (central time) and it was almost 8 (mountain time). I scanned through the chanels on the truck's radio and stopped on a classic rock station which was finishing off some song I didn't recognize from the early 80's I figured. It went to a comercial break, but I stuck with the station because my other two options were a country station and an all-jesus-all-the-time station.

As the station returned from break, it went through its call sign

"One hundred point five. The rock."

< Dead silence >

I kept glancing down at the dial and started to chuckle to myself. They were broadcasting dead air; how embarassing. Thirty seconds passed. I was cracking up. These idiots clearly didn't have a very high value on their air time if they were letting thirty seconds go by without broadcasting anything. How unprofessional. A minute passed. I started to get a little peeved. The sun was setting into my eyes, so I adjusted the sun visor -- I was only able to see the road up to the horizon in front of me. Two minutes passed, still no music. Man, these guys seriously need work. I started to forget that I was listening to the radio. Five minutes passed. Then I finally hear

"One hundred point five. The rock"

< Dead silence >

Someone's clearly gone to take a shit after queueing up a whole bunch of music. The call signs keep coming but the music they've queued is not. Well surely their boss is listening to the radio and will jump into the booth and straighten the mess out. Five more minutes pass; my mind wanders and I start to get sleepy. Fortunately, the radio comes to its senses and I hear

"One hundred point five. The rock"

< Dead silence >

AAAAAAAAA. Play something goddamnit!

I switched to the country station.

Putin shutters Journalist Group over $2500

The head of the Educated Media Foundation is facing charges of 5 years in jail for accidentally walking through customs without declaring $2500 over the legal limit of $10000.

The foundation has been shut down, its computers seized, its accounts frozen.

Over $2500.

Putin is an enemy of the world.

GHWB (41)

Bigot

Rove To Abramoff: It's safe to break the law now

An uncovered email from Rove's secretary to Abramoff's secretary:

"I now have an RNC BlackBerry, which you can use to e-mail me at any time. No security issues like my WH e-mail."

Willing violation of the Presidential Records Act of 1978 by Bush's #2. (And yes, I do mean to imply Rove is a little shit.)

Impeach!

Sensitivity toward Islam

Pakistan is threatening to cut its ties with Britain over the knighting of the author of a literary work of fiction.

This work of fiction inflames Islamists and is insensitive toward moderates. Everyone knows that offending a great religion is blasphemy and punishable by death. Surely the British should have been more sensitive than to give any praise for a man who has lived under threat of death for 20 years. Moderates agree that he should be murdered, and if the moderates agree, then Britain is offensive in not carrying out the execution themselves!

In the name of world peace and sensitivity, murder the author!

Tanks and Students

Magnum photos is presenting 31 pictures that moved the world.

#27 is my vote for the most moving.

Star Wars

The evil emporer squelches the vote by positioning his Storm Troopers outside polling stations in areas of great unrest.

Cheney's hatred for America

He wages war on the principles that founded this country. His weapon: calling the Constitution a rallying point for pussies and terrorists.

That's the Republican party. A bunch of fascists.

Can we afford a Giuliani presidency? He's clearly in the Cheney camp when it comes to reckless disreguard for the Constitution.

Goodling had something to hide

For Gonzales, the shit hit the fan today. I can't see him remaining in office another week.

Goodling testified that McNulty lied to congress and that hiring inside the Justice department for *career positions* was politically motivated.

Goodline stalled the hiring of a layer from Harvard law specifically because of his political leanings.

The hiring of career layers and the appointments to political positions fall under different categories. Bush and Gonzales have presided over the worst politicization of the US govenerment ever.

Both should be tried for treason. They intentionally sought to violate the constitution they swore to uphold.

Wolfowitz's statement

Hitchens summary of this non-event is spot on.

Here's Wolfowitz's statement to the World Bank.

Wolfowitz non-scandal

I'm disappointed in the media for neglecting all facts surrounding the Wolfowitz case in their reporting of it. All that gets reported are the accuasations of a scandal. "The europeans are upset over a promotion of Wolfowitz's girlfriend" is all that gets reported. Since that's all that gets reported, it seems like that's all there is to the case and anyone can draw the conclusion that Wolfowitz has acted inapporpiately. This is a terrible sin of omission.

Again, I have to admire Hitchens for taking a firm stand when no one else will: Wolfowitz has been more than open with the world bank about his relationship with Riza, and the World Bank's decision to promote Riza so as to alleviate any conflict of interest is now being portrayed as Wolfowitz's decision based on nepotism or something even less seemly -- showering a girlfriend with money.

Hitchens has two articles that should be read.

From when the "controversy" first emerged: here

and from today: here.

I have no love lost for Wolfowitz. But men should only be convicted for crimes they commit. The press's attempt to try him the court of public opinion while not presenting any facts is shameful.