Meadowmont, 18 months of supply

207 Oval Park Place

The rule of thumb, according to the Seatltle Bubble Blog, is that 6 months of supply is a balanced market. Fewer than 6 months of supply is a sellers market, more than 6 months of supply is a buyers market.

Meadowmont has seen 2 properties close in the last 31 days. There are 36 active listings. There are 2 continent listings, and 5 pendings. Discounting the contingent and pending listings, Meadowmont is looking at 18 months of supply.

So, should we count the pending sales? How likely are they to go through? Given the rapid rise in the interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, (roughly 20% increase as interest rates went from 4.5% to 5.5%), many pending sales are falling through at the last minute; if a buyer got a quote but didn't "lock in" the rate, then when they go to close, they'll find out they're no longer eligable, the sale falls through, the home ends up back on the market.

Generally, people are no longer looking at ARM mortgages. If you can only afford the monthly payment when the government is artificially holding interest rates at historical lows, then you'd be in trouble the moment they let go; maybe the government won't let go? Well, looks like last month, their grip wasn't strong enough.

Pending sales in Meadowmont:
331 W Barbee Chapel Road, $593/sqft, Asking 1,550,000
341 W Barbee Chapel Road, $551/sqft. Asking 1,400,000
343 W Barbee Chapel Road, $530/sqft. Asking 1,100,000
339 W Barbee Chapel Road, $517/sqft. Asking 1,100,000
709 Spring Street, $142/sqft. Asking $174,900

I'll keep you posted when and if these homes close or if they end up back on the market. That first home had been looking for a buyer for 593 days before it found one. Let's say all of these homes close in the next week; then Meadowmont would be showing 7 sales and 36 listings; less than 6 months of supply. A seller's market? I remain skeptical.

That last listing is on the other side of 15-501. Seems much more reasonable.

Today's property:

207 Oval Park Place. $308/sqft. Asking $1,395,000.

This house has been on the market since March 17th, 2007. It's been 830 days.

It was purchased in 2001 for 1,089,500. Apparently, the next generation needs to pony up another quarter million to keep the Ponzi scheme going.